Can Domestic Food Production Provide Future Urban Populations with Food and Nutrition Security?—Insights from Bangladesh, Kenya and Uganda

Population growth and urbanization increasingly put pressure on our planet's availability of areas needed for food production. The dependencies on domestically produced food are increasingly judged favourable, following the consequences of the Ukrainian war, with escalating fuel and grain prices and less accessibilities to low-income groups. It is, however, unclear whether land is domestically available. Applying a food system approach, the main aim of this article is to investigate spatial foodsheds and theoretical self-sufficiency for food production needed to supply increasing future populations in a selection of cities, including estimates for Dhaka in Bangladesh, Nairobi in Kenya and Kampala in Uganda. The projected foodshed scenario areas for the years 2020 and 2050 are estimated for the production of three core products currently extensively produced and consumed in the three countries. They show that it is not possible to feed an ever-increasing urban population based on domestic production alone. International trade, new technological developments and new consumer demands for less area-intensive food production systems may give solutions to the immense challenge of feeding the world's population with nutritious food in 2050. However, to ensure fair and inclusive transition pathways for low-income groups: (1) affordability and accessibility of trade opportunities, technologies and products, (2) a common vision aiming for the SDGs, including SDG2: Zero hunger and SDG11: Sustainable Cities and Communities as well as (3) best practices in co-creation and cooperation with the most vulnerable urban and rural populations, are highly needed.

VR-mediated storytelling of experience in destination branding: hybrid 4D transformations1

In COVID-19 era, destination branding faces the challenge of digitalization and virtual reality (VR) in particular. The fundamentals of VR-mediated storytelling in destination branding are in the process of being developed. There is a luck of research on immersive VR-mediated storytelling, scenarios, and messages in destination branding, especially realised with technologies of more complex – hybrid – immersivity (4D). The shift from 2D, 3D to 4D hybrid multisensory VR technologies is not only among the main technology developments – it provokes new research problems with VR-mediated destination branding and storytelling. The authors present the results of theoretical and empirical research of VR-mediated destination storytelling of a brand driven by the newest 4D hybrid multisensory technological approaches on the case of Switzerland. In Switzerland, VR-mediated projects in destination branding are developing actively last years but VR-mediated storytelling research in this field was not provided yet. In this regard, it was chosen 100 destination brand VR projects, presented in 2016–2022, to compare the parameters of VR-mediated storytelling of a brand. VR has to be included into brand storytelling paradigm, which must be rethought for this specific sphere. It was proved that it is more effective to combine different types of experience, virtual and physical both and make the VR-mediated brand storytelling hybrid. In terms of theoretical implications, this paper opened a specific research area by bridging theoretical and empirical ideas of destination branding, VR-mediated storytelling and digital media, technical and social communication. © Shilina M.G., Sokhn M., Wirth J., 2023.

SRI LANKA OXYGEN READINESS AND STRATEGIES ADAPTED FOR COVID-19 PATIENTS' MANAGEMENT

Background: Shortly after the Covid-19 oxygen crisis in India, the Sri Lanka Ministry of Health started investigating and analyzing gaps in oxygen production, supplies and demands. Aims: This study aimed to evaluate the preparedness in Covid-19 cases management and recommend strategies to prevent oxygen crisis in healthcare facilities. Methods: This study used information on oxygen source redundancy and delivery methods to assess whether a healthcare facility is prepared to provide the necessary oxygen demand for patients in need and to estimate the number of patients that can be treated with the currently available oxygen supplies. The predicted oxygen supplies and demands were assessed with a panel of experts using qualitative and quantitative methods. Data were collected using the Health Information Update System. Results: Sri Lanka had 39,529 designated hospital beds including Intensive Care Unit and High Dependency Unit beds for Covid-19 patients. Even though an average number of patients were reaching 30,000, the actual oxygen demands were around 1,200 which were easily manageable with the current capacity of 80 tons per day. Conclusions: Sri Lanka has made progress to increase access to oxygen by using novel methods to procure and increase oxygen availability, storing, and carrying capacity. © 2022, Airlangga University. All rights reserved.

Designing an Empathy Training for Depression Prevention Using Virtual Reality and a Preliminary Study

As virtual reality (VR) is labeled by many as 'an ultimate empathy machine,' immersive VR applications have the potential to assist in empathy training for mental healthcare such as depression [21]. In responding to the increasing numbers of diagnosed depression throughout COVID-19, a first-person VR adventure game called 'Schwer' was designed and prototyped by the authors' research team to provide a social support environment for depression treatment. To continue the study and assess the training effectiveness for an appropriate level of empathy, this current article includes a brief survey on data analytics models and features to accumulate evidence for the next phase of the study, an interactive game-level design for the 'Reconstruction' stage, and a preliminary study with data collection. The preliminary study was conducted with a post-game interview to evaluate the design of the levels and their effectiveness in empathy training. Results showed that the game was rated as immersive by all participants. Feedback on the avatar design indicated that two out of three of the non-player characters (NPCs) have made the intended effect. Participants showed mostly positive opinion towards their experienced empathy and provided feedback on innovative teleport mechanism and game interaction. The findings from the literature review and the results of the preliminary study will be used to further improve the existing system and add the data analytics model training. The long-term research goal is to contribute to the healthcare field by developing a dynamic AI-based biofeedback immersive VR system in assisting depression prevention. © 2023 IEEE.

Examining the effects of disinformation and trust on social media users' COVID-19 vaccine decision-making

Purpose: Disinformation on social media is a serious issue. This study examines the effects of disinformation on COVID-19 vaccination decision-making to understand how social media users make healthcare decisions when disinformation is presented in their social media feeds. It examines trust in post owners as a moderator on the relationship between information types (i.e. disinformation and factual information) and vaccination decision-making. Design/methodology/approach: This study conducts a scenario-based web survey experiment to collect extensive survey data from social media users. Findings: This study reveals that information types differently affect social media users' COVID-19 vaccination decision-making and finds a moderating effect of trust in post owners on the relationship between information types and vaccination decision-making. For those who have a high degree of trust in post owners, the effect of information types on vaccination decision-making becomes large. In contrast, information types do not affect the decision-making of those who have a very low degree of trust in post owners. Besides, identification and compliance are found to affect trust in post owners. Originality/value: This study contributes to the literature on online disinformation and individual healthcare decision-making by demonstrating the effect of disinformation on vaccination decision-making and providing empirical evidence on how trust in post owners impacts the effects of information types on vaccination decision-making. This study focuses on trust in post owners, unlike prior studies that focus on trust in information or social media platforms. © 2023, Emerald Publishing Limited.

Learning from the Future of Kuwait: Scenarios as a Learning Tool to Build Consensus for Actions Needed to Realize Vision 2035

This perspective is a qualitative meta-analysis study using a critical interpretive synthesis that narrates three future and equally plausible scenarios of social and economic development in the State of Kuwait over the next 15 years. The first scenario follows what we call the ‘Sustainable Growth' model as defined by the United Nations Development Goals and the Kuwait Vision 2035 presented by the Amir Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah. As a polar opposite, the next scenario is what we call the ‘Mismanaged Resourced-Based Autocracy' model, a negative reflection of the worst-case scenario. The third scenario is in between these two, and we call it the ‘Equality of Outcome Between Societal Groups' model. So as not to lay blame for past actions or point fingers, which could prove counterproductive to a consensus-building process for needed actions, we chose to use the pasts of other countries for future projections for the State of Kuwait. Our search through recent socio-economic pasts revealed that Singapore was the best fit for the first scenario, Venezuela for the second, and Lebanon for the third. All these countries became fully independent at approximately the same time as the State of Kuwait and share many other similarities. The three future projections were used as input variables to the outcome, which was a bottom-up and top-down consensus-making process regarding utilitarian action for Kuwait to be used by Non-Government Organizations (NGOs), Think-Tanks, Development Agencies, the government and the parliament.

TRACE-Omicron: Policy Counterfactuals to Inform Mitigation of COVID-19 Spread in the United States

The Omicron wave is the largest wave of COVID-19 pandemic to date, more than doubling any other in terms of cases and hospitalizations in the United States. In this paper, a large-scale agent-based model of policy interventions that could have been implemented to mitigate the Omicron wave is presented. The model takes into account the behaviors of individuals and their interactions with one another within a nationally representative population, as well as the efficacy of various interventions such as social distancing, mask wearing, testing, tracing, and vaccination. We use the model to simulate the impact of different policy scenarios and evaluate their potential effectiveness in controlling the spread of the virus. The results suggest the Omicron wave could have been substantially curtailed via a combination of interventions comparable in effectiveness to extreme and unpopular singular measures such as widespread closure of schools and workplaces, and highlight the importance of early and decisive action. © 2023 Wiley-VCH GmbH.

Quantitative Framework for Establishing Low-Risk Inter-District Travel Corridors During COVID-19.

Aspirations to slow down the spread of novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) resulted in unprecedented restrictions on personal and work-related travels in various nations across the globe in 2020. As a consequence, economic activities within and across the countries were almost halted. As restrictions loosen and cities start to resume public and private transport to revamp the economy, it becomes critical to assess the commuters' travel-related risk in light of the ongoing pandemic. The paper develops a generalizable quantitative framework to evaluate the commute-related risk arising from inter-district and intra-district travel by combining nonparametric data envelopment analysis for vulnerability assessment with transportation network analysis. It demonstrates the application of the proposed model for establishing travel corridors within and across Gujarat and Maharashtra, two Indian states that have reported many COVID-19 cases since early April 2020. The findings suggest that establishing travel corridors between a pair of districts solely based on the health vulnerability indices of the origin and destination discards the en-route travel risks from the prevalent pandemic, underestimating the threat. For example, while the resultant of social and health vulnerabilities of Narmada and Vadodara districts is relatively moderate, the en-route travel risk exacerbates the overall travel risk of travel between them. The study provides a quantitative framework to identify the alternate path with the least risk and hence establish low-risk travel corridors within and across states while accounting for social and health vulnerabilities in addition to transit-time related risks.

Impact of using authentic online learning environments on students' perceived employability.

The digitalization and globalization of society and the corresponding impact on the rules of the labor market is shifting the education sector toward new pedagogical approaches that integrate wholly online methodologies. Sustainable Development Goal 4 advocates for inclusive and equitable quality education that promotes lifelong learning opportunities, and, as we have seen during the COVID-19 lockdown, online learning can play a key role. In a context where lifelong learning becomes crucial to maintaining graduates' employability, the innovative teaching methodologies that promote employable competencies in online environments are especially desirable. With the purpose of improving the employability of students, this article analyses the impact of introducing the Authentic Learning Scenarios (ALS) paradigm in an online environment. We develop a quasi-experimental design. Based on the nine ALS criteria and their application to e-learning, we redesign a course in a business degree program. Data from 135 students were collected, with special focus on achieving general competences. We compare the perception of the competency profile attained between a group of students who took the course before incorporating the ALS paradigm and another group that took it once it had been redesigned. Results show that redesigning the course enables students to perceive the learning process as more authentic, as well as acquiring a more advanced competence profile. Besides this, it has been shown that technology can contribute to building cognitive authenticity in virtual classrooms, without the need for face-to-face internships, which are often not a feasible option for students of online programs.

Scenario design for macrofinancial stress testing

This paper provides a novel empirical approach to scenario design for selecting a stress scenario for international macrofinancial variables. The scenario design framework is composed of several building blocks. First, multiple scenarios on the risk factors are generated by simulating a multi-country large Bayesian vector autoregression. Second, we take the perspective of a representative investor who aims to select a severe-yet-plausible scenario for a set of systematic risk factors following a factor-investing strategy. Moreover, we compare the stress scenarios selected under different approaches to measure plausibility (the Mahalanobis distance and entropy pooling under subjective views with a clear economic narrative). Finally, we compare our scenario design approach with a historical scenario approach in terms of its ability to select a stress scenario in the run-up to a rare adverse event such as the Covid-19 pandemic. We give evidence that our framework is suitable for the selection of a proper forward-looking severe-yet-plausible macrofinancial stress scenario.

An innovative approach to online consumer behaviour segmentation: the self-determination theory in an uncertain scenario

Purpose - In the most recent years, social, innovative, economic and political changes in the European context have characterized consumers' behaviours. The paper aims to understand if the use of electronic commerce differs in a situation characterized by uncertainty. Design/methodology/approach - An innovative approach to categorising online consumer behaviour considers the self-determination theory and basic psychological needs in an uncertain scenario. The research is based on a quantitative analysis obtained by clustering algorithms on a sample of 1,000 digital users in European countries. A structured questionnaire was administered online and distributed through the leading online social platforms and direct mailing. Findings - The results show online activities during changes in consumer behaviour patterns and retailers' strategies. This research will allow online retail managers and practitioners to obtain important information to help them define appropriate customer-oriented strategic actions to enhance value in the electronic context for both customers and firms. Originality/value - The innovation of this research approaches the categorization of online consumer behaviour by exploiting the self-determination theory in an uncertain scenario. Precisely, the novelty of this research is to highlight three detailed categories of electronic commerce consumers, namely, unwilling, halfback and digital, to collect, store and disseminate information about these categories of Online Consumers Behaviours.

Aerosol transmission in queuing and dining scenarios in canteens and the effectiveness of control measures

This study investigates the aerosol transmission in queuing and dining scenarios in canteens and explores the effectiveness of control measures. An improved Wells-Riley equation is adopted to calculate the infection risk. The dilution of exhaled aerosols is difficult in the crowded queuing scenario, where the replacement of queuing positions increases the cross-infection risk. The highest infection risk is 1.16% and 1.08% for the linear-queue and cross-queue condition, respectively. Shortening the queuing duration, increasing the separation distance, and wearing masks can considerably reduce the infection risk. In the dining scenario, the effect of increasing ACH is limited on reducing the local concentration. An exhaust vent installed close to the top of the partition can effectively remove the local high-concentration aerosols. Intermittent occupation of a seat can considerably reduce the transmission risk between the consecutive dinners taking that seat. These findings should contribute to improved control of infectious transmission in canteens.

A Strategy Formulation Framework for Efficient Screening during the Early Stage of a Pandemic.

For viruses that can be transmitted by contacts of people, efficiently screening infected individuals is beneficial for controlling outbreaks rapidly and avoiding widespread diffusion, especially during the early stage of a pandemic. The process of virus transmission can be described as virus diffusion in complex networks such as trajectory networks. We propose a strategy formulation framework (SFF) for generating various screening strategies to identify influential nodes in networks. We propose two types of metrics to measure the nodes' influence and three types of screening modes. Then, we can obtain six combinations, i.e., six strategies. To verify the efficiencies of the strategies, we build a scenario model based on the multi-agent modelling. In this model, people can move according to their self-decisions, and a virtual trajectory network is generated by their contacts. We found that (1) screening people will have a better performance based on their contact paths if there is no confirmed case yet, and (2) if the first confirmed case has been discovered, it is better to screen people sequentially by their influences. The proposed SFF and strategies can provide support for decision makers, and the proposed scenario model can be applied to simulate and forecast the virus-diffusion process.

Crowd intervention strategies considering indoor respiratory exposure risks

In order to explore impacts of crowd intervention strategies on indoor respiratory exposure risks during major pandemics, a variety of crowd motion scenarios were established in general indoor conditions based on improved pedestrian dynamics model and respiratory infection probability model. Then, multi-agent simulation technology was utilized to simulate impacts of strategies, including protection optimization, pedestrian flow optimization and route optimization, on the exposure risks. The results show that indoor respiratory exposure risks are mainly determined by total pedestrian flow, individuals' stay length, movement route planning and duration of stay in contaminated areas. The carryover effect will be formed due to pedestrians' obedience behavior of social distancing, which will further increase exposure time to contaminated areas. The lower pathogen permeability of masks, and the greater space ventilation are, the lower infection probability the crowd will face. © 2022 China Safety Science Journal. All rights reserved.

Students' Eyes Like Reality-Based Sceneries in E-Learning

E-Learning has shown to be an important resource, particularly in recent times due to the limitations in the Sars-CoV-2 pandemic. Several ways to deliver lessons through the Internet were used but both instructors and students complained about visual outputs. An evaluation of the most proficient techniques to create video-based lessons is highly relevant and critical. Seventy-eight students participated to 30 h of university online courses delivered through MS Teams, in which OBS (Open Broadcaster Software) Studio was used to create the lessons. The software allowed merging: a) MS Powerpoint slides, b) the instructor through a webcam, c) pictures of background sceneries. After the end of the courses, students filled in a questionnaire evaluating pictures taken from different e-learning sceneries. The OBS-based situation obtained the best evaluation in all measures (fruition, attention keeping and promotion of learning) and the highest rank when participants were asked to compare all the sceneries. These results confirm that students prefer reality-based sceneries, in which the most informative aspects (face, body and voice of the instructor, and the slides used for the lesson) are all present. Beside other obvious factors related to the quality of teaching, e-learning should also definitely consider visual features. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.

Future of mobility in Jakarta Metropolitan Area: A Multi-Stakeholder scenario planning

The growth of the urban population and their mobility, added with the COVID-19 pandemic and its impacts, requires the capability to anticipate uncertainties. As a developing country, Indonesia has progressed with many developments in urban mobility, but at the same time, challenges still may affect its future, particularly in a metropolitan like Jakarta. Despite the widely understood challenges faced by the metropolitan, there has been limited understanding about its possible futures of mobility and the ways to go in its respective future. A multi-stakeholder scenario planning was used to develop future scenarios of urban mobility in Jakarta Metropolitan Area (JMA), utilizing stakeholders' point of views regarding the driving forces and critical uncertainties that may shape the future of mobility to create action-oriented strategies to achieve the desired future. A medium-term time scale of ten years (2021–2030) was used to give viable and practical recommendations. Four scenarios were developed, which consisted of: 1) one seamless ecosystem, 2) the culture of public transportation, 3) the exclusive green community, and 4) the social dilemma of public versus private transportation, which emphasized the forms of mobility that would dominate in the next ten years. With implications of each scenario explained from several aspects, six efforts should be considered to direct the future of mobility in Jakarta Metropolitan Area: vehicle electrification, limitation of fossil fuel vehicles and broader use of public transportation, implementation of MaaS and TOD, commuters' behavior changes with push and pull policies, and boosting funding for mobility facilities. © 2023 The Author(s)

Scenarios for digital twin deployment in healthcare facilities management

Purpose: This paper aims to focus on identifying key health-care issues amenable to digital twin (DT) approach. It starts with a description of the concept and enabling technologies of a DT and then discusses potential applications of DT solutions in healthcare facilities management (FM) using four different scenarios. The scenario planning focused on monitoring and controlling the heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning system in real-time;monitoring indoor air quality (IAQ) to monitor the performance of medical equipment;monitoring and tracking pulsed light for SARS-Cov-2;and monitoring the performance of medical equipment affected by radio frequency interference (RFI). Design/methodology/approach: The importance of a healthcare facility, its systems and equipment necessitates an effective FM practice. However, the FM practices adopted have several areas for improvement, including the lack of effective real-time updates on performance status, asset tracking, bi-directional coordination of changes in the physical facilities and the computational resources that support and monitor them. Consequently, there is a need for more intelligent and holistic FM systems. We propose a DT which possesses the key features, such as real-time updates and bi-directional coordination, which can address the shortcomings in healthcare FM. DT represents a virtual model of a physical component and replicates the physical data and behavior in all instances. The replication is attained using sensors to obtain data from the physical component and replicating the physical component's behavior through data analysis and simulation. This paper focused on identifying key healthcare issues amenable to DT approach. It starts with a description of the concept and enabling technologies of a DT and then discusses potential applications of DT solutions in healthcare FM using four different scenarios. Findings: The scenarios were validated by industry experts and concluded that the scenarios offer significant potential benefits for the deployment of DT in healthcare FM such as monitoring facilities' performance in real-time and improving visualization by integrating the 3D model. Research limitations/implications: In addition to inadequate literature addressing healthcare FM, the study was also limited to one of the healthcare facilities of a large public university, and the scope of the study was limited to IAQ including pressure, relative humidity, carbon dioxide and temperature. Additionally, the study showed the potential benefits of DT application in healthcare FM using various scenarios that DT experts validated. Practical implications: The study shows the practical implication using the various validated scenarios and identified enabling technologies. The combination and implementation of those mentioned above would create a system that can effectively help manage facilities and improve facilities' performances. Social implications: The only identifiable social solution is that the proposed system in this study can manually be overridden to prevent absolute autonomous control of the smart system in cases when needed. Originality/value: To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the only study that has addressed healthcare FM using the DT approach. This research is an excerpt from an ongoing dissertation. © 2023, Emerald Publishing Limited.

Scenario Analysis on the Macroeconomic Impact of COVID-19: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach

This article uses the Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGE) of an open economy to analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on an open economy and industry sub-sectors, using the 2017 China Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) table data. The results have shown that, overall, the COVID-19 pandemic has harmed the economy extensively. The residential sector has been the most severely affected sector, particularly the hotels and catering services industries. Resident consumption demand is the most deeply affected part of all industries in all scenarios. Stabilizing employment and expanding demand is therefore an important mission for the government.

Coping With Covid‐19: Older Europeans and the Challenges of Connectedness and Loneliness

Social networks are important for well‐being and healthy aging. However, older adults are more likely to have less social contact with others than their younger counterparts due to significant changes in their lives, such as retirement or age‐related losses, along with declining health and mobility. Consequently, with increasing age, a growing proportion of people experience feelings of loneliness. This becomes even more important during pandemics when social contact should be minimized. Therefore, this article examines the extent and patterns of loneliness before and during the first two years of the Covid‐19 pandemic and how social contact and the type of communication affected levels of loneliness during the pandemic. To investigate loneliness, social contact, and their association during the pandemic, this study uses representative data from 27 countries from SHARE (Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe). The analyses are based on a balanced panel covering three consecutive waves with 28,448 respondents aged 50 years or older. The results indicate that three out of ten Europeans face loneliness in later life. While loneliness has increased for a significant part of the elderly in the wake of the pandemic, there has also been a reverse trend in terms of a decrease in feelings of loneliness for an almost equal proportion of people. Additionally, multivariate analyses highlight that nonpersonal communication cannot substitute face‐to‐face interaction and can potentially increase feelings of loneliness. © 2023 by the author(s);licensee Cogitatio (Lisbon, Portugal). This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY).

A business retrieval model using scenario planning and analytics for life during and after the pandemic crisis

The COVID-19 pandemic crisis has fundamentally changed the way we live and work forever. The business sector is forecasting and formulating different scenarios associated with the impact of the pandemic on its employees, customers, and suppliers. Various business retrieval models are under construction to cope with life after the COVID-19 Pandemic Crisis. However, the proposed plans and scenarios are static and cannot address the dynamic pandemic changes worldwide. They also have not considered the peripheral in-between scenarios to propel the shifting paradigm of businesses from the existing condition to the new one. Furthermore, the scenario drivers in the current studies are generally centered on the economic aspects of the pandemic with little attention to the social facets. This study aims to fill this gap by proposing scenario planning and analytics to study the impact of the Coronavirus pandemic on large-scale information technology-led Companies. The primary and peripheral scenarios are constructed based on a balanced set of business continuity and employee health drivers. Practical action plans are formulated for each scenario to devise plausible responses. Finally, a damage management framework is developed to cope with the mental disorders of the employees amid the disease.Copyright © 2021 The Author(s)